Putin’s Arctic Gambit

By: Willie Tsai, Aumrita Savdharia, Aryan Ghadia, and ROMA KAPOOR

By any objective standard, the United States/NATO military deployments in the Arctic do not currently present a threat to Russia’s Northern Fleet, nor its other military assets there. Arctic tensions are high but have not tipped over the brink, due to poor United States capabilities. However, precarious times create precarious implications.

Russia could find itself with no money as soon as next year. Russia’s economic output shrank 2.1% last year, cracks are starting to show, and Western sanctions could escalate further. The Arctic is Putin’s saving grace. Twenty percent of the Russian economy is dependent on the Arctic. Resources provide interest for Russia to continue its contested claims to the North. Its Arctic interest is survival, as it seeks to support its economy. Russia continues to leverage toward its goal of securing resources, and Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, is willing to risk war. Eighty percent of which are in areas of competing territorial claims. This inevitably raises the specter of increased confrontation and resulting conflict.

There is pressure on Putin for forceful retaliation now. The Kremlin’s mishandling of the war, compounded by mutiny, has made the government appear weak. Drone attacks stoked a perception among Russians of the state’s inability to ensure the safety of the country. The people have delegated Putin the right to deal with the West, which Russians believe threatens their country’s existence.

Pretext to justify conflict triggers the trap. Tatiana Stanovoya, the founder of an organization that brings global attention to Russian politics, summarizes they advocate for tightening the screws and placing the country on a war footing. The current political conditions leave no alternative for the regime other than to become less tolerant of even minor suspicious activities.

Putin fears for Russia’s security, and he as he grows weaker, fears NATO encirclement. The ice barrier that once protected Russia’s northern shore will be exposed like never before. Russia represents 53% of the Arctic coastline, and the need to protect its northern border is a key national security concern.

That’s why greater involvement could contribute to escalation and security-dilemma. After a military increases its capabilities to act in the Arctic, it will signal that it is more of a threat to Russia. Russia is most likely to respond by stiffening its military posture. Falling for the polar trap uniquely spirals now. Paranoia inside Putin’s chain of command may lower the nuclear threshold. The Wagner Group’s recent mutiny dealt a blow to the Kremlin and its authority. Commanders fear the US will exploit Russia’s new situation. The depth of the implicit threat means provocations may spiral into an uncontrollable escalation.